Commodity Calls: Week Ending 26 April 2024

Gold rallies on rising geopolitical tensions, crude oil demands a war-risk premium, and copper supply stays lacking.

Join Global X each week for ‘Commodity Calls’ to explore all the recent signals and developments that occurred in the world of commodities.

Looking for more? Check out this week’s Market Moves and Thematic Spotlight.

Copper

Bullish

  • Mining giant BHP Group is attempting to acquire British mining company Anglo American plc for US$39 billion.1 Should BHP succeed, the combination of the two mining firms will result in the world’s largest copper producer by volume, responsible for roughly 10% of the global supply.2
  • According to mining intelligence firm CRU, mining firms will need to invest more than US$150 billion between 2025 and 2032 to address copper’s growing supply gap.3 Meanwhile, BlackRock forecasts copper will have to reach US$12,000 per tonne to justify new investments by miners.4

Bearish

  • Copper tubing and wire fabricators in China have struggled to pass on higher costs to customers, resulting in lower sales since March.5 Lower demand by customers could lead to a dip in copper purchases as fabricators wait for better pricing.

Explore copper with WIRE.

Crude Oil

Bullish

  • Crude oil rose as Russia and Ukraine continue to target one another’s energy infrastructure in the ongoing conflict. Last week, Ukrainian drones struck oil refineries in Ilsky and Slavyansk, the latter of which has since partially halted operations.6
  • Crude oil inventories in the US unexpectedly fell by 3.23 million barrels.2 Analysts had estimated that US inventories would increase by 1.8 million barrels.

Bearish

  • A massive oil field discovered in offshore Namibia could kickstart the country’s nascent oil industry. According to Galp, the Portuguese energy operator who discovered the reservoir, the newly discovered oil field should contain at least 10 billion barrels of oil.8

Explore crude oil with BCOM.

Silver

Bullish

  • According to the Silver Institute, global silver deficit is expected to increase by 17% to more than 200 million ounces in 2024.9 The rising deficit is attributed to significant and expanding industrial demand and a structural decline in total supply.
  • Silver held in exchange depositories and London vaults fell 5% last year, equivalent to 15 months of global supply.10 The largest contributor to stock decrease was China, where industrial demand for silver (especially in the solar industry) grew 44%.11

Bearish

  • US personal consumption expenditures, a measure of inflation, rose 3.1% through January-March stoking fears that the Fed may push back their already delayed plans for interest rate cuts in 2024.12 Non-yielding assets such as precious metals can perform poorly in high interest rate environments.

Explore physical silver with ETPMAG.

 

Forecasts are not guaranteed and undue reliance should not be placed on them. This information is based on views held by Global X as at 30/04/2024. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Diversification does not ensure a profit nor guarantee against a loss.

Brokerage commissions will reduce returns.

This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. This information is not intended to be individual or personalised investment or tax advice and should not be used for trading purposes. Please consult a financial advisor or tax professional for more information regarding your investment and/or tax situation.