ETF Express: Week Ending 9 February 2024

ETF Express is Global X’s weekly coverage of the latest ETF Market Moves, Thematic Spotlight and Commodity Calls.

 

  • Crypto ETFs (CRYP, EBTC, EETH) were the top performing funds last week as Bitcoin rallied to a new two-year high of US$50,000.1 Crypto-adjacent companies, especially crypto-miners, were the biggest winners as higher Bitcoin prices improve profit margins.
  • China-oriented ETFs (CETF, CNEW) also outperformed after President Xi reportedly sat down with stock market regulators to discuss the stabilisation of Chinese equities.2 Chinese stocks have lost US$7 trillion in value since December 2021, making the region attractive for contrarian and value investors.3
  • Uranium ETFs (ATOM, URNM) were some of the worst performers of the week as Cameco, the world’s largest uranium by market cap, announced plans to increase production by as much as 33% in 2024.4 The recent rally in Uranium prices have, in large part, been driven by supply restraints.5 Cameco’s elevated projections have helped address some of those concerns.
  • There were $378.7 million in reported inflows for the shortened week and $100.6 million in outflows, marking a week of net inflows for the Australian ETF industry.

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All Eyes On Nvidia As AI Rally Continues

Semiconductors and AI

Nvidia had a spectacular rally in 2023 and is showing no signs of slowing down. This year-to-date Nvidia’s share price has already returned 45% and its market capitalisation has increased by more than US$600 billion, single handedly contributing to more than 25% of the S&P 500’s gains.6 Nvidia’s outperformance is a testament to the bullishness investors feel towards AI and its growth prospects. While Nvidia remains the standout, other firms related to AI are also benefiting. Newly listed ARM Holdings, a fellow chip-designer, rallied more than 50% last Thursday after projecting record revenues for the coming quarter based on AI demand.7

Unlike ARM, Nvidia has yet to announce its Q4 earnings for 2023, which is due on the 21st of February.8 Undoubtedly, investors will be keenly watching to see if the company’s growth is truly as strong as the markets are pricing. Last November, the company smashed analyst expectations by reporting record-breaking revenue of US$18.1 billion for the quarter, up 205% YoY.9 In the same quarter, Nvidia’s datacentre revenue, which includes its AI GPU segment, grew by almost 300% YoY.10 This quarter, analysts estimate Nvidia will cash-in more than US$20.1 billion in revenue, of which US$16.7 billion will be attributed to its AI datacentre business.11

Nvidia’s current market cap of US$1.78 trillion is within touching distance of fellow FANG members Google (US$1.86T) and Amazon (US$1.81T).12 Should Nvidia’s Q4 earnings impress, we could very well see a switching of the guard as Nvidia climbs toward the top of the world’s most valuable companies.

Explore semiconductors with SEMI.

 

Uranium

Bullish

  • The US Department of Energy (DOE) has issued a Request for Proposals (RFP) for uranium enrichment services to help establish a reliable domestic supply of high-assay, low-enriched uranium (HALEU). The Inflation Reduction Act will provide up to US$500 million for the HALEU enrichment contracts.13
  • The UK government is exploring plans to build a new large-scale nuclear plant. The project would be the biggest expansion of UK’s nuclear sector in 70 years, reducing reliance on overseas supply.14
  • The Biden administration is poised to lend US$1.5 billion for what would be the first restart of a shuttered US nuclear reactor, the latest sign of strengthening federal government support for the atomic industry.15

Bearish

  • The bill in the US Congress to restrict imports of Russian uranium has stalled in the Senate. The US Prohibiting Russian Uranium Imports Act, which passed the House on Dec. 11, has bipartisan support, but is being held by Senator Ted Cruz, a Texas Republican.16
  • Electricite de France SA has taken three UK nuclear units offline to allow engineers to inspect steam valves after a fault was found at one of the plants.17

Explore uranium with ATOM.

Copper

Bullish

  • Escondida Copper Mine’s output declined in the fourth quarter of 2023. The year-on-year decline in mined copper production was due to a 3% lower recovery in the concentrator and lower grade on the oxide leach pad, according to Rio Tinto’s production report.18

Bearish

  • Chinese macroeconomic headwinds continue to hurt base metals. January manufacturing PMI data showed a fourth straight contraction.19
  • Fading expectations of the US Fed’s immediate interest rate cuts. The Fed is likely to move far slower than the market expected: bets on a March rate cut have dropped substantially.20

Explore copper with WIRE.

Crude Oil

Bullish

  • Venezuelan oil production is expected to decline quickly to as low as 600,000 barrels a day from a four-year high of 876,000 b/d should the US follow through on threats to reinstate sanctions on the nation.21
  • Rates for vessels carrying fuel from the Middle East to Asia have almost tripled since the US and UK launched airstrikes on Yemen’s Houthi rebels.22

Bearish

  • Fading expectations of the Fed’s immediate interest rate cuts. The Fed is likely to move far slower than the market expected: bets on a March rate cut have dropped substantially.23
  • Potential global economic slowdown could weigh on oil demand, as business activity and consumer spending suffer the impact of rate hikes in 2022 and 2023.24

Explore crude oil with BCOM.

 

Forecasts are not guaranteed, and undue reliance should not be placed on them. This information is based on views held by Global X or referenced sources as of 13th February 2024.