Market Moves: 23 September 2026

Last Week in Markets

Both US and Australian equities finished broadly flat last week, with markets squarely focused on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate decision.

The S&P 500 finished broadly unchanged last week as investors digested calls for an AI slowdown as well as the Fed's rate decision. Sector performance diverged across rate sensitive and defensive names, with utilities and real estate among the laggards, offset by strength in health care. The information technology sector brushed off warnings on the pace of AI development from Anthropic's Dario Amodei, echoed by Sam Altman and Elon Musk. At the same time cybersecurity stocks rallied on rising agentic AI threat concerns, with the Global X Cybersecurity ETF (BUGG) up almost 12% over the week.¹ The FOMC also voted unanimously to lift the overnight funds rate 25bps to a range of 3.75-4% on the back of a resilient labour market and persistent inflation and oil pressures.² Equities and bonds initially sold off on Warsh's hawkish press conference and fears of further tightening, though Thursday's retreat in yields suggested investors were growing more comfortable with the Fed's willingness to act on inflation.

The S&P/ASX 200 closely followed the US last week, finishing relatively flat with the health care sector outperforming. RBA Governor Michele Bullock delivered a hawkish testimony, reiterating that upside risks to inflation appear to be materialising. She flagged the Middle East conflict, the AI boom and extreme weather events as key pressures.³ Markets ended the week implying a near 90% probability of a hike.⁴ Sector performance reflected a mixed defensive rotation, with health care continuing to outperform as investors sought defensive cash flows amid rising macro uncertainty. Although bond yields eased over the week, they remain elevated and continue to pressure real estate and information technology sectors domestically.

The Week Ahead

• Australian employment data lands ahead of next week's RBA rate decision
• A data light week in the US, with several FOMC members speaking and durable goods orders due

In the World of Commodities

Brent Crude Oil: Oil prices held above US$100 last week, peaking on Tuesday before settling lower on Friday. The increase followed Saudi Arabia's shutdown of its critical pipeline that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz.⁵ Prices later eased as Saudi Arabia was reported to be seeking to restore roughly half the capacity of the East-West pipeline within days of the shutdown.⁶

Gold: (GOLD) prices rebounded late last week after selling off into the US FOMC meeting. Easing Treasury yields and falling crude oil prices supported the recovery, with gold reclaiming some of its losses to finish slightly below the US$4,400 level.

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