Global X splits from a single house view in H2 outlook

16 July 2026

• AI is entering its most investable phase as adoption accelerates
• A resurgence in income investing is broadening the opportunity set for investors
• Gold and copper are expected to play a more prominent role in portfolios

Investors should prepare for a markedly different market environment in the second half of 2026, according to Global X ETFs, with the factors that drove returns over the past six months unlikely to remain the sole drivers of performance through year-end.

For the first time, Global X ETFs' Investment Strategy team is not presenting a single house view. In previous editions of their Market Outlook, the team has spoken with one voice; this time, three strategists are putting forward three distinct perspectives, each grounded in the same research but landing in different places on risk and positioning. In its latest H2 2026 Market Outlook, Global X's Investment Strategy team argues that investors may need to reassess portfolio positioning as markets move into a new phase characterised by AI commercialisation, a broadening of equity market leadership, persistent inflation risks and renewed opportunities in commodities and income-focused investments.

"The forces that shaped markets in the first half of 2026 are shifting," said Billy Leung, Senior Investment Strategist at Global X ETFs. "The next six months could look very different, which means investors may need to look beyond the trades that have dominated markets in recent years."

AI moves from hype to deployment

Mr Leung believes the AI investment story remains intact, but says the market is entering an important new chapter.

"The debate about whether AI matters is over. The focus now is on how quickly businesses adopt and commercialise the technology at scale," said Leung.

"Investors have spent the past few years focused on the software winners. The next opportunity may lie in the physical build-out required to support AI, from semiconductors and memory to power infrastructure, networking and data centres. Inference costs have fallen roughly 99% since 2022, pulling forward demand across the AI value chain"

Mr Leung argues falling AI costs are accelerating demand and creating a multi-year investment opportunity across the broader AI ecosystem.

"AI is entering its most investable phase yet. Adoption is accelerating, and the infrastructure needed to support that growth remains years away from being fully built."

Market leadership is broadening

Global X Investment Strategist Marc Jocum believes investors should prepare for a market that is no longer driven by a small group of mega-cap leaders.

"The biggest opportunity in H2 may be looking beyond the companies that have already delivered exceptional returns," Mr Jocum said.

"We're seeing a resurgence in income-focused investing and compelling opportunities emerge in growth-at-a-reasonable-price strategies and small- to mid-cap companies. Small and mid-cap stocks are now trading at their widest valuation discount to large caps in over a decade."

Mr Jocum said diversification is likely to become increasingly important as market leadership broadens: "What worked in the first half of the year won't necessarily be what works in the second half. Investors should think about building more balanced portfolios that can participate in a wider range of opportunities."

Commodities could be the surprise winner

For Global X Investment Strategist Justin Lin, the biggest opportunities may lie in areas many investors have largely ignored.

"AI remains a powerful long-term theme, but enthusiasm around parts of the sector has become increasingly concentrated," said Lin.

"At the same time, commodities are benefiting from many of the same structural forces shaping the global economy, including energy demand, infrastructure investment and geopolitical uncertainty. Grains, livestock and base metals have all outpaced the MSCI World and S&P 500 so far this year."

Mr Lin believes commodities, including gold and copper, could play a more prominent role in portfolios during the second half of the year.

"Investors may be surprised by how well commodities perform if inflation remains sticky, energy markets stay constrained and geopolitical risks continue to influence markets. These are areas that remain relatively under-owned despite improving fundamentals."

Three shifts investors should watch in H2 2026

According to Global X, investors should focus on three key developments over the coming six months:

• The commercialisation of AI, creating opportunities beyond the largest technology companies.
• A broadening equity rally, supporting income strategies, GARP investing and small- and mid-cap companies.
• A resurgence in commodities and real assets, driven by inflation, energy and geopolitical trends.

"The market environment is evolving," said the team. "Investors who adapt to those changes may be better positioned than those who simply rely on the winners of the last cycle."

For All Media Queries

Please contact James Mitchell, Global X Australia | +61 413 619 034 | james.mitchell@globalxetfs.com.au

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Global X ETFs Australia is a leading ETF provider with a growing range of cost-effective and innovation-led products which are built to help Australian investors achieve their investment outcomes by providing access to a successful pool of ETFs across thematics, income, commodities, digital assets and more. Global X Australia’s nuanced understanding of the local market is backed by international resources and expertise to deliver a beyond ordinary experience for all stakeholders.

About Global X ETFs

Global X ETFs was founded in 2008. For more than a decade, our mission has been empowering investors with unexplored and intelligent solutions. Our product lineup features almost 430 ETF strategies worldwide and over US$165 billion in assets under management.¹ While we are distinguished for our Thematic Growth, Income, and International Access ETFs, we also offer Core, Commodity, and Alpha funds to suit a wide range of investment objectives. Global X is a member of Mirae Asset Financial Group, a global leader in financial services, with more than US$800 billion in assets under management worldwide². Mirae Asset has an extensive global ETF platform ranging across the US, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Colombia, Europe, Hong Kong, India, Japan, Korea, and Vietnam with over US$208 billion in assets under management.³

<sup>1. Assets under management as at June 2026, Global X
2. Assets under management as at June 2026, Mirae Asset Financial Group
3. Assets under management as at June 2026, Mirae Asset Global Investments</sup>

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