Final Thoughts
The tariff regime has shifted, but the market response has been more about adjusting positioning than repricing fundamentals. With estimated exposure across our equity strategies remaining contained, the broader focus turns to relative resilience.
As dispersion grows, opportunities will likely come from identifying markets and themes with low direct exposure, supportive macro conditions, and room for flows to catch up.
Equities: The market is still working through tariff implications, but dispersion is growing. Relative outperformance has favoured names and regions with lower trade sensitivity. India stands out with fundamentals intact, supportive macro conditions, and investor flows still lagging performance. NDIA offers efficient, targeted exposure to the Nifty 50 – a non-US growth story with limited direct impact from US tariff policy.
Commodities: Precious metals will likely benefit as market volatility heightens and trade-war risks loom. For gold, investors should closely monitor the Federal Reserve’s policy stance—any shift from its current “wait and see” approach to a more accommodative or dovish posture, such as rate cuts similar to those in 2019, could serve as a significant catalyst for increased gold demand. Industrial commodities may come under systematic pressure as demand is likely to cool on elevated pricing. However, given long-term supply and demand fundamentals in commodities such as copper and uranium – current sell off may represent an attractive entry opportunity.
Fixed Income: Tariffs reinforce the steepening trend as growth risks rise and the Fed pivots toward cushioning the slowdown. Long end duration still looks vulnerable, while the front end may stay better supported. Keep duration risk light and curve steepeners in play. For those looking to position in the belly of the curve, USTB provides a simple and efficient way to access high quality US Treasury exposure with defensive characteristics.
