Market Moves: Week Ending 26 September 2025

US markets closed the week lower as upbeat economic data clashed with cautious Fed commentary and mounting shutdown fears. Q2 GDP growth was revised up to 0.38% quarter over quarter, the strongest pace since 2023, while unemployment claims also surprised to the upside.¹ The rebound in US economic health complicates the Fed’s projected rate-cut path, raising doubts over how aggressive easing might be. At the same time, investors grew jittery over the looming risk of a government funding shutdown. While shutdowns have rarely triggered major sell offs in the past, this one could prove different if it delays key data releases the Fed relies on to steer policy.²

Australian equities edged lower despite dovish remarks from RBA Governor Bullock, after inflation once again surprised to the upside and threatened to breach the bank’s target band. The ABS monthly CPI indicator rose 3.0% year over year, above the already elevated 2.9% forecast.³ The hotter print cast doubt on the RBA’s planned 2025 rate cuts, with markets now pricing only a 60% chance of a 25bps move next year.⁴

Precious metals (ETPMPM, ETPMPT, ETPMPD, ETPMAG) were a theme across the top performers last week as investors bet lower interest rates in the US would make the non-yielding assets more attractive.

In the world of commodities:

• Platinum (ETPMPT) extended its upward price climb as persistent supply shortages collide with intermittent demand surges. Spot platinum hit a 52-week high of US$1485/oz.⁵
• Lithium miners (ACDC) received a sentiment boost after the US government announced it would take a 10% stake in Lithium Americas.⁶
• Copper (WIRE) prices rallied after Freeport-McMoRan declared a force majeure from its second largest mine.⁷ This follows a major incident at the site two weeks ago, where 800,000 metric tonnes of mud flowed into underground levels.

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