Gold hits yet another all-time high as Chinese investors pile-in, copper rallied after US tariff pause, and Russian crude oil production crimped by sanctions.
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Gold
Bullish
Gold hit yet another all-time high of US$3200 as Chinese investors rushed to the precious metal to hedge trade war risks.1 The Shanghai Futures Exchange saw the highest trading volumes for gold in a year as investors and industry players ramped up buying to counter rising US and Chinese tensions.
Bearish
The S&P 500 to gold ratio hit 1.67 in early April, the lowest since July 2020 when pandemic fears rocked global equities.2 The S&P 500 to gold ratio can be used as an indicator of flight to safety and signal if equities or gold is “overvalued”.
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Copper
Bullish
Copper rallied after President Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause in the implementation of US reciprocal tariffs.3 Markets were further supported when the President further exempted products such as smartphones and PCs from China — a sign that the US may be more flexible around tariff policy than previously expected.
Chinese copper stockpiles plunged as manufacturers and traders “bought the dip”.4 Shanghai Futures Exchange stockpiles of copper dropped by 43,000 tonnes over the course of one week – the fastest pace in five years – as domestic consumers snapped up the metal after Trump’s tariffs triggered a sell-off in the industrious metal.
Bearish
Despite a 90-day pause, economic projections remain impacted by US tariffs and the effects of the global trade war.5 A study released by Penn Wharton suggests that “many existing trade and macroeconomic models fail to capture the full harm caused by tariffs” and projects Trump’s tariffs would reduce US GDP by 8% and wages by 7%.
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Crude Oil
Bullish
Russia’s new energy plan revealed that the country’s crude oil production and exports are unlikely to grow through 2050.6 Russia’s energy exports have been crimped by US and EU sanctions, and oil production is now set to see zero growth from now until the midpoint of the century.
Bearish
OPEC has lowered its 2025 oil demand forecasts as it predicts tariff effects will slow economic activity.7 A recent report by the oil producing bloc highlighted that Trump’s policies will likely lead to a more cautious outlook on oil consumption.
Explore crude oil with BCOM.
Forecasts are not guaranteed and undue reliance should not be placed on them. This information is based on views held by Global X as at 15/04/2025. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Diversification does not ensure a profit nor guarantee against a loss.
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This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. This information is not intended to be individual or personalised investment or tax advice and should not be used for trading purposes. Please consult a financial advisor or tax professional for more information regarding your investment and/or tax situation.
