Contrary to the usual seasonal weakness in September, the S&P 500 rose 3.5% for the month and 7.8% for the quarter – marking one of its strongest quarterly performances in the past two decades.1 AI remained the growth engine of the market with AMD’s partnership with OpenAI sparking renewed enthusiasm across semiconductor and other AI hardware industries.2 However, risks remain as the US government shutdown starts to muddy the economic picture. Key releases such as trade and jobless claims are now at risk of delay. A prolonged data blackout could leave the Fed flying blind ahead of its October meeting, with little visibility on labour or growth trends.3
Closer to home, the ASX 200 slipped 1.4% in September as weakness in energy stocks weighed on the broader market and investors digested the RBA’s latest policy decision.4 The central bank opted to hold rates steady at 3.6%, choosing caution after a surprise uptick in inflation the week before.5 The monthly CPI indicator rose to 3.0% year-on-year, brushing the upper edge of the RBA’s target band and reigniting debate over whether rate cuts expected later in the year might be delayed.
Cryptocurrency ETFs (BTXX, CRYP, EBTC, EETH, IBTC, IETH, QBTC, QETH, VBTC) surged across the board and were a theme among the top performers last week. Bitcoin, in particular, climbed to around US$125,000, lifted by strong US equity gains, seasonal October tailwinds dubbed “Uptober,” and rising recognition of its safe-haven appeal as the US dollar softened.6
In the world of commodities:
- Hydrogen-related equities (HGEN) rallied last week as the sector rode a wave of enthusiasm surrounding AI infrastructure. A string of major contracts for bellwether names such as Bloom Energy and Plug Power has renewed attention on hydrogen fuel cells as one of the few viable clean energy solutions for power-hungry AI data centres.7
- Spot gold (GOLD) hit a new all-time high of US$3975 as investors bet on Federal Reserve rate cuts and continued to hedge US government shut down risks.8
- Silver (ETPMAG) has begun to regain its historical leverage to gold, as risk-on sentiment returns and available US economic indicators point toward a gradual normalisation.9
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