Commodity Calls: Week Ending 7 March 2025

Copper rallies as China sets ambitious GDP growth target, crude oil falls to its lowest in four years on tariffs, and Canada commits US$200 million to new gen nuclear project.

Join Global X each week for ‘Commodity Calls’ to explore all the recent signals and developments that occurred in the world of commodities.

Looking for more ETF Express? Check out this week’s Market Moves and Thematic Spotlight.

Copper

Bullish

• Copper rallied on hopes of Chinese economic stimulus after Premier Li Qiang announced an ambitious 5% GDP growth target at the country’s National People’s Congress (NPC).¹ The 5% figure is identical to China’s growth target in 2024 and underlines that Beijing is confident in the country’s ability to navigate tariffs and bolster domestic growth.
• Trump’s Speech to Congress heavily implied that the US will go ahead with tariffs against copper imports.² The US is heavily reliant on offshore suppliers of copper with Chile, Mexico and Canada being top providers of the metal. Any proposed tariffs on copper may lead to a short-term rush to ship the metal state-side, before a possible long-term malaise on copper producers.

Bearish

• Chinese consumer inflation entered negative territory for the first time since January 2024, highlighting the country’s consumer weakness.³ Chinese inflation fell 0.7% y/y in February. Some of the weakness could be explained by an earlier than expected Lunar New Year, however the report is nonetheless a reminder of the country’s economic challenges.

Explore copper with WIRE.

Crude Oil

Bullish

• Indonesia has committed US$12.5 billion on a crude oil refinery plant as it seeks to cut oil imports and boost energy security.⁴ The facility will have a capacity of 531,500 barrels per day, making it one of the largest in Southeast Asia.

Bearish

• Crude oil prices dropped to their lowest in almost four years as tariffs against Mexican and Canadian imports into the US went into effect.⁵ This comes as the OPEC+ nears it’s April deadline for increasing production, and the EIA estimated the US crude oil inventory increased 3.6 million barrels for the final week of February.
• Chinese oil imports fell 5% year over year in the months of January and February.⁶ Total crude oil imports into China averaged 10.38 million barrels per day, in 2024 the average daily import was 10.74 million tonnes.

Explore crude oil with BCOM.

Uranium

Bullish

• Canada has lent US$212 million to AtkinsRealis, a nuclear infrastructure firm, to support the development of a next-gen nuclear reactor technology.⁷ AtkinsRealis recently unveiled a 3rd generation nuclear reactor that could produce 1000MWs called the Candu Monark.

Bearish

• The uranium spot price has declined to US$65 per pound according to the last price release by UxC.⁸ This marks a decline of 10% since the beginning of the year. Investors continue to fear Russian sanctioned supply re-entering the market and bloating inventories.

Explore uranium with ATOM.

Forecasts are not guaranteed and undue reliance should not be placed on them. This information is based on views held by Global X as at 11/03/2025. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Diversification does not ensure a profit nor guarantee against a loss.

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This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. This information is not intended to be individual or personalised investment or tax advice and should not be used for trading purposes. Please consult a financial advisor or tax professional for more information regarding your investment and/or tax situation.