Commodity Calls: Week Ending 19 April 2024

US sanctions Venezuelan oil, China cannot get enough gold, and copper touches 22-month highs as industry top dogs meet.

Join Global X each week for ‘Commodity Calls’ to explore all the recent signals and developments that occurred in the world of commodities.

Looking for more? Check out this week’s Market Moves and Thematic Spotlight.

Crude Oil

Bullish

  • US has reimposed sanctions on Venezuelan oil exports after President Maduro failed to honour commitments made to the US, including hosting a free and fair presidential election this year.1

Bearish

  • Crude oil prices retraced as geopolitical tensions between Iran and Israel appeared to cool and the odds of escalation into war decreased. Israel launched a retaliatory drone strike at Iran over the weekend in retaliation for a prior attack, however the scale of the attack was reportedly limited, and damage caused was minimal.2
  • Russia was India’s largest oil supplier for a second fiscal year in a row, and now provides the majority of the country’s crude oil.3 OPEC oil slumped to as low as 46% of Indian imports last year, the lowest since FY2001-02.4

Explore crude oil with BCOM.

Gold

Bullish

  • The PBOC have now been net purchasers of gold for 17 months in a row.5 The Shanghai gold premium, a sign of Chinese domestic retail demand has also surged as investors seek physical gold to hedge depreciating investments.6
  • Gold prices fluctuated after Israel launched its retaliatory attack on Iran over the weekend.7 Constant geopolitical tension in the Middle East has driven many investors to safe haven assets such as gold and other precious metals.

Bearish

  • Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s hawkish speech last week pushed back the likelihood of near-term rate hikes.8 Market pricing now indicates that the odds of three rate cuts occurring by December 2024 sits at ~15%, down from almost 40% two weeks prior.9 Non-yielding assets such as precious metals have historically performed poorly in high-rate environments.

Explore gold with GOLD.

Copper

Bullish

  • Copper touched a 22-month high of US$9739 per tonne last week as analysts, investors and mining CEOs gathered in Santiago, Chile, for the Annual Cesco Week gathering.10 Cesco Week is a one of the largest industry events for the copper miners – a place for companies to network, gather market intelligence and discuss market trends.
  • A panel of six major market participants at the Cesco Week Copper Conference unanimously agreed that copper would head for higher prices in the medium term.11

Bearish

  • Copper price often reflects the health of the economy, and economic growth may falter should interest rates stay higher for longer. The odds of three rate cuts occurring by December 2024 fell from almost 40% to 15% after poor CPI readings and hawkish Fed sentiment.12

Explore copper with WIRE.

 

Forecasts are not guaranteed and undue reliance should not be placed on them. This information is based on views held by Global X as at 22/04/2024.

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Diversification does not ensure a profit nor guarantee against a loss. Brokerage commissions will reduce returns. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results.