Commodity Calls: Week Ending 3 May 2024

Gold rejoices on poor US data, mining giants take turns bidding on copper, and overproducing oil nations get a slap on the wrist.

Join Global X each week for ‘Commodity Calls’ to explore all the recent signals and developments that occurred in the world of commodities.

Looking for more? Check out this week’s Market Moves and Thematic Spotlight.

Gold

Bullish

  • While the FOMC left rates unchanged as expected, Fed Chair Jerome Powell maintained an easing bias, stating a rate-hike was unlikely as the Fed’s next change in monetary policy.1
  • Poor economic data released in the US has brought life back to the Fed rate-cut narrative, weakening the US dollar. Unemployment in the states rose more than expected, up 3.9% against 3.8% expected, while PMIs for both services and manufacturing fell below 50, into contractionary territory.2

Bearish

  • Safe haven purchasing declined as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East appeared to cool. Israel and Hamas have reportedly made “noticeable progress” in cease-fire talks as delegations were sent to Cairo, Egypt.

Explore physical gold with GOLD.

Copper

Bullish

  • Positive Chinese economic data buoyed copper market sentiment. China’s official manufacturing PMI came in at 50.3, marking a second month of expansion in a row.4 Meanwhile, the Caixin / S&P Global PMI, a private survey, reported a score of 51.4, the highest in more than a year.5
  • Mining giant Glencore is considering a potential bid for Anglo American just days after the British firm rejected a takeover offer by Australia’s BHP.6 Glencore and Anglo both own 44% of the Collahuasi mine in Chile, home to some of the world’s largest reserves of copper.7

Bearish

  • Copper fell from two-year highs last week after US factory activity unexpectedly contracted in April, weighing on the metals outlook.

Explore copper with WIRE.

Crude Oil

Bullish

  • The OPEC has convened a workshop to address the overproduction of oil and devised a compensation plan for members to make up for previous overages.9 Iraq and Kazakhstan were two major over-suppliers having produced 602,000 bpd and 389,000 bpd over the quota in Q1 of 2024.10 Both countries have submitted plans which would ensure full compensation of overproduced volumes by EOY.

Bearish

  • Crude oil prices fell last week as war-risk premiums faded. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East look to be cooling as Israel and Hamas have reportedly made “noticeable progress” in cease-fire talks hosted in Cairo, Egypt.11

Explore crude oil with BCOM.

 

 

Forecasts are not guaranteed and undue reliance should not be placed on them. This information is based on views held by Global X as at 7/05/2024. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Diversification does not ensure a profit nor guarantee against a loss.

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This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. This information is not intended to be individual or personalised investment or tax advice and should not be used for trading purposes. Please consult a financial advisor or tax professional for more information regarding your investment and/or tax situation.