Commodity Calls: Week Ending 5 April 2024

Mexico halts crude oil exports, China keeps buying gold, and Goldman gives uranium the stamp of approval.

Join Global X each week for ‘Commodity Calls’ to explore all the recent signals and developments that occurred in the world of commodities.

Looking for more? Check out this week’s Market Moves and Thematic Spotlight.

Crude Oil

Bullish

  • Mexico’s state-owned oil company, Pemex, is temporarily halting crude oil exports over the next few months as it focuses on domestic production ahead of the local presidential election.1 Oil shipments from Mexico fell 35% last month to their lowest since 2019.
  • Oil prices soared past US$90 per barrel as geopolitical tensions flared after Iran blamed Israel for a strike on a compound in Syria which resulted in the deaths of multiple Iranian military officials.2

Bearish

  • Israel has conceded to pull a portion of its troops from Southern Gaza after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said victory was within reach.3 The move could help allay some of the geopolitical tension in the area.

Explore crude oil with BCOM.

Gold

Bullish

  • The PBOC increased its gold reserves by 72.74 million troy ounces in March, making it the 17th month in a row the Chinese central bank has purchased the precious metal.4
  • The Reserve Bank of India and the National Bank of Kazakhstan also purchased 6 tonnes of gold each last month.5 Global central banks have been net purchasers of gold for nine months straight.6

Bearish

  • Strong US labour market data dampened market sentiment around the probability of Fed rate cuts in 2024. Non-farm payrolls increased by 303,000 in March, the most in 10 months, and unemployment rate fell to 3.8%.7

Explore physical gold with GOLD.

Uranium

Bullish

  • Kazakhstan, the world’s most prolific producer of uranium, is experiencing the worst flooding in three decades and waters are set to continue rising as snow melts across the Kazakh steppe.8
  • Cameco Corp., the world’s largest uranium miner by market cap, climbed 14% last week after Goldman Sachs initiated the company with a buy rating citing weak production outlook from Kazatomprom and strong global uranium demand growth.9

Bearish

  • Russian nuclear fuel remains unsanctioned despite the US House of Representatives passing a bill in December last year to ban its imports.10

Explore uranium with ATOM.

 

Forecasts are not guaranteed and undue reliance should not be placed on them. This information is based on views held by Global X as at 08/04/2024. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Diversification does not ensure a profit nor guarantee against a loss.

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This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. This information is not intended to be individual or personalised investment or tax advice and should not be used for trading purposes. Please consult a financial advisor or tax professional for more information regarding your investment and/or tax situation.