Commodity Calls: Week Ending 31 January 2025

Canada signs a nuclear energy cooperation deal with Poland, gold hits record highs as investors react to Trump’s tariffs and the OPEC sticks to its plan to unwind crude oil output cuts in April 2025.

Join Global X each week for ‘Commodity Calls’ to explore all the recent signals and developments that occurred in the world of commodities.

Looking for more ETF Express? Check out this week’s Market Moves and Thematic Spotlight.

Uranium

Bullish

  • Canada has signed an agreement on cooperation in the peaceful use of nuclear energy with Poland.1 The agreement complements other initiatives signed between the two nations including the General Security of Information Agreement (GSOIA). Once implemented the GSOIA will enhance information sharing and create business opportunities for companies in defence, aerospace, marine, and nuclear for both nations.

Bearish

  • President Trump has withdrawn the United States from the Paris Agreement as he looks to “put the interest of the US and the American people first”.2 The Paris Agreement took effect in 2016, but Trump withdrew the US in 2017, finalising the exit in 2020. However, Joe Biden rejoined via executive order in 2021, which is why Trump is withdrawing for a second time.

Explore uranium with ATOM. 

Gold

Bullish

  • Gold hit new all-time highs of US$2815 after investors positioned for volatility in response to Trump’s tariffs.3 The new policies are poised to raise the average US Tariff rate to ~10.5%, the highest since the 1940s.4 Uncertainty is high as, outside of the early 20th century, investors have limited contemporary examples to help forecast the potential economic impact of Trump’s tariffs.

Bearish

  • The Federal reserve has opted not to lower its key interest rate in its January meeting.5 Fed Chair Jerome Powell commented that while recent data prints have been encouraging, uncertainty surrounding the effect of Trump’s policies has pushed the Fed to lean on the side of caution. Gold usually performs better in low-interest rate environments as it is a non-yielding asset.

Explore gold with GOLD and GXLD.

Crude Oil

Bullish

  • Ukrainian drones performed strikes on Russian oil refineries for the second time in less than a week.6 The attacks set a 20,000-ton oil storage tank ablaze and damaged vital infrastructure. One of the refineries attacked processes 262,000 bpd, representing almost 5% of Russia’s total refining capacity.

Bearish

  • The OPEC has said it won’t change its current plan to unwind output cuts starting April 2025 despite the recent rise in oil prices.7 The Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC), the OPEC’s panel for reviewing policy and markets, made its decision to leave plans unchanged this Monday.

Explore crude oil with BCOM.

 

Forecasts are not guaranteed and undue reliance should not be placed on them. This information is based on views held by Global X as at 4/02/2025. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Diversification does not ensure a profit nor guarantee against a loss.

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This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. This information is not intended to be individual or personalised investment or tax advice and should not be used for trading purposes. Please consult a financial advisor or tax professional for more information regarding your investment and/or tax situation.